Global: Food prices hit their highest ever point in March, driven by the war in Ukraine, sky high fuel costs, labor shortages and climatic trends contributing to drought and poor harvests.  Why it Matters It’s protest season in the northern hemisphere and with most countries lifting COVID-19 social distancing measures, unrest will tick up, potentially […]

Germany/EU/ Russia: German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said that Europe needed to consider banning gas imports from Russia following graphic evidence of atrocities committed by Russian forces in Ukraine. Why it Matters: Sanctioning Russian gas supplies would disrupt European manufacturing capacity as well as driving even higher inflation that could last months – if not years. The economic impact […]

Russia: Regime change remains a low likelihood/high impact scenario in Russia, despite the toll sanctions are taking on the economy, the detention of thousands of Russian protesters and the $1 million bounty on President Vladimir Putin.  Why it Matters: Sanctions will have a major impact, but don’t expect a full collapse of the Russian economy. The […]