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Food and Energy Prices: The Gathering Storm

Food and Energy Prices: The Gathering Storm

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Global: Food prices hit their highest ever point in March, driven by the war in Ukraine, sky high fuel costs, labor shortages and climatic trends contributing to drought and poor harvests.  Why it Matters It’s protest season in the northern hemisphere and with most countries lifting COVID-19 social distancing measures, unrest will tick up, potentially […]
What Happens if Europe Actually Sanctions Russian Gas?

What Happens if Europe Actually Sanctions Russian Gas?

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Germany/EU/ Russia: German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said that Europe needed to consider banning gas imports from Russia following graphic evidence of atrocities committed by Russian forces in Ukraine. Why it Matters: Sanctioning Russian gas supplies would disrupt European manufacturing capacity as well as driving even higher inflation that could last months – if not years. The economic impact […]
Chances of Regime Change in Russia

Chances of Regime Change in Russia

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Russia: Regime change remains a low likelihood/high impact scenario in Russia, despite the toll sanctions are taking on the economy, the detention of thousands of Russian protesters and the $1 million bounty on President Vladimir Putin.  Why it Matters: Sanctions will have a major impact, but don’t expect a full collapse of the Russian economy. The […]
China and the World

China and the World

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The five-yearly 20th Communist Party Congress (CPC) will be held in the autumn of 2022 and looks set to appoint Xi Jinping to a third term as national leader, following constitutional changes in recent years to permit such an appointment.
Download our Strategic Intelligence Estimate

Download our Strategic Intelligence Estimate

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You can now download the entire 76 page Strategic Intelligence Estimate for 2022 at this link. The report covers big picture strategic issues of importance to our clients across the globe including geopolitics, the environment, food security, data, IT security regulations, organized crime, extremism and more… Have a look inside and see what’s been on […]
The Future of Data

The Future of Data

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The pandemic accelerated humanity’s deep dive into online life with work, medical appointments, and even happy hour gatherings – moving the world more firmly into a virtual space that allowed for shared connectedness while attempting to keep people healthy.
Corporations and Climate

Corporations and Climate

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The Sputtering Environmental Recovery Companies and governments will increase efforts to address environmental problems this year, but deeply complex challenges and major electoral contests in 2022 will limit success. Efforts to address major environmental challenges will be undermined by political divisions, lack of enforcement capability and the need for radical shifts in business models to […]
2022: The View from Washington DC

2022: The View from Washington DC

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A White House Correspondent Looks at the Year Ahead… Some progress in Congress is possible while the President’s slim majority exists, but legislative and regulatory inertia brought on by a sharply divided Democratic and Republican party in an election year will be the order of the day in Washington this year.  Republicans will almost certainly regain a majority in the […]
Introduction to the 2022 Strategic Intelligence Estimate

Introduction to the 2022 Strategic Intelligence Estimate

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A note from ERI Executive Leadership Looking Forward after Another Year of Uncertainty Every September, since we began putting together a Strategic Intelligence Estimate (SIE) ahead of the new year, we have debated internally whether it is worth the effort. And this year was different only in that we had to take a very hard […]
Seabed Mining: Will the Drive for EV Battery Materials Wreck the Ocean Environment?

Seabed Mining: Will the Drive for EV Battery Materials Wreck the Ocean Environment?

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As the International Seabed Authority (ISA) struggles to regulate seabed mining under a 2023 deadline, corporations and nations are squaring off over the environmental and economic stakes amid rising demand for the metals needed for electric vehicle (EV) batteries and renewable energy technologies.   Why It Matters:   One of the key challenges to keeping up with demand for electric vehicles and renewable energy, both of which are surging as the world seeks […]
Disrupting the Friendly Skies

Disrupting the Friendly Skies

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United States/ Global: Airline CEOs met in Boston starting on Sunday, October 3 to discuss the future of the industry amid existential problems including flagging business travel and the industry’s collective impact on climate change.  Industry challenges facing air travel reflect a high-profile version of the convergence of strategic and tactical risk management problems facing […]
Looking at COVID-19’s Declining Mortality Rate

Looking at COVID-19’s Declining Mortality Rate

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June 26, 2020 – This week’s Situation Room dashboard takes a look at the mortality rate of COVID-19 and examines an apparent decline in the numbers. While there is some volatility at the onset of outbreaks, mortality differs most significantly between countries and regions rather than a declining much over time. Thus the change in observed […]

Seven Deadly Sins of Private Sector Intelligence

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The craft of intelligence is part art and part science. As the world grows smaller, through technology and the ability to virtually reach across the globe in seconds, our ethics, tradecraft and tools risk becoming more controversial. As private sector intelligence professionals, our work should not be as fraught as that of our government counterparts – but at times it can […]
ERI Staff Blog: Coronavirus and Supply Chain Consolidation Risk

ERI Staff Blog: Coronavirus and Supply Chain Consolidation Risk

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What do US meatpacking and global fashion have in common which drove their upheaval during the COVID-19 pandemic? Consolidation in both industries created an underlying fragility where a crisis could affect choke points and quickly reverberate through the entire value chain.

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