“A straight-line prediction is usually a confession of ignorance.”  This line from a dear friend and co-designer of ERI’s foundational Corporate Intelligence Analysis, Tradecraft and Writing course, Ben Brandt, has been ringing in my head in the weeks since Yevgheny Prigozhin’s failed march on Moscow.    Observing a mass of media and pundit groupthink  – especially on Twitter and LinkedIn – Ben’s warning is particularly relevant. News stories, Twitter threads and risk assessments from other intelligence providers all begin and end on a similar...