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Tag: Ukraine

What Happens if Europe Actually Sanctions Russian Gas?

Germany/EU/ Russia: German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said that Europe needed to consider banning gas imports from Russia following graphic evidence of atrocities committed by Russian forces in Ukraine.Why it Matters: Sanctioning Russian gas supplies would disrupt European manufacturing capacity as well as driving even higher inflation that could last months – if not years. The economic impact would further set back European economic recovery from COVID-19, with ripple effects to other economies in the US, Middle East and Africa. Last week, as talks broke...

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Chances of Regime Change in Russia

Russia: Regime change remains a low likelihood/high impact scenario in Russia, despite the toll sanctions are taking on the economy, the detention of thousands of Russian protesters and the $1 million bounty on President Vladimir Putin. Why it Matters:Sanctions will have a major impact, but don’t expect a full collapse of the Russian economy. The tendency when thinking about major blows to an economy like that which we are seeing in Russia is to expect a full economic collapse; something that brings down the government and leads to whole of society upheaval on par with...

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