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Coordinated Cartel Violence in Mexico

August 2022: Coordinated multi-state violence portends an uncertain security environment, with cartels acting out to dispel perceptions of fragmentation and weakness.  Why it Matters Intense violence that targeted civilians and businesses across three states in northern Mexico from August 9-13 has temporarily abated, but the scale and scope of the coordinated violence across three states by the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) highlight a willingness to go to new extremes to portray the extent of their power and control.  The multi-day surge in violence – which included...

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Food and Energy Prices: The Gathering Storm

Global: Food prices hit their highest ever point in March, driven by the war in Ukraine, sky high fuel costs, labor shortages and climatic trends contributing to drought and poor harvests. Why it MattersIt’s protest season in the northern hemisphere and with most countries lifting COVID-19 social distancing measures, unrest will tick up, potentially toppling governments and affecting election outcomes. Pakistan ousted former Prime Minister Imran Khan after months of protest and a no confidence vote in parliament, linked to his handling of the pandemic and...

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What Happens if Europe Actually Sanctions Russian Gas?

Germany/EU/ Russia: German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said that Europe needed to consider banning gas imports from Russia following graphic evidence of atrocities committed by Russian forces in Ukraine.Why it Matters: Sanctioning Russian gas supplies would disrupt European manufacturing capacity as well as driving even higher inflation that could last months – if not years. The economic impact would further set back European economic recovery from COVID-19, with ripple effects to other economies in the US, Middle East and Africa. Last week, as talks broke...

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Chances of Regime Change in Russia

Russia: Regime change remains a low likelihood/high impact scenario in Russia, despite the toll sanctions are taking on the economy, the detention of thousands of Russian protesters and the $1 million bounty on President Vladimir Putin. Why it Matters:Sanctions will have a major impact, but don’t expect a full collapse of the Russian economy. The tendency when thinking about major blows to an economy like that which we are seeing in Russia is to expect a full economic collapse; something that brings down the government and leads to whole of society upheaval on par with...

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Download our Strategic Intelligence Estimate

You can now download the entire 76 page Strategic Intelligence Estimate for 2022 at this link. The report covers big picture strategic issues of importance to our clients across the globe including geopolitics, the environment, food security, data, IT security regulations, organized crime, extremism and more… Have a look inside and see what’s been on our minds…Excerpt:“The focus of the annual SIE is nearly always about how external global events will impact the company, government or organization it is written for in the coming years. While this is an...

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The Future of Data

Data will drive our reality in the coming decades, but it will remain highly susceptible to manipulation, government control and misuse – even as it becomes more ubiquitous.    Rapid evolution of the online environment to “the metaverse” will take the use of data to shape our reality to new levels, bringing with it new legal, regulatory and privacy concerns.  Lack of data literacy will lead to more real-world harm as bad actors use incomplete, poorly collected or...

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